08 Sep Over-Confidence
Curious Investor Behaviour – Number 4
Over-Confidence
According to multiple studies into human behaviour, the majority of people consider themselves superior in most day-to-day activities – for example, over 90% of drivers believe they are better than average! Over-confidence is a particularly dangerous trait in the field of investment. It leads to over-estimation of one’s knowledge and under-estimation of risk. In the late nineties,many investors enjoyed exceptional paper profits in technology stocks and attributed their successes to their ability.
As one astute observer put it, aim for timid forecasts and bold choices. In other words, under-estimate your knowledge and over-estimate risk.
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